Por qué privatizar no ayuda ante problemas de solvencia

Publicado en Apuntes Urbanos

Vía ayj, "The privatisation illusion":

privatisations are unlikely to cure European state solvency. What is the value of a business? The discounted sum of all future cash flows. So when you sell a business, you lose access to those cash flows, which could have been used to service the debts. Or, as Socgen puts it

privatisations merely front-load future receipts into a single lump-sum as a state asset is sold.

Now it is possible that buyers of the asset might overestimate the cash flows, or apply the wrong discount rate. The seller might get a boost to their solvency if the buyer overpays. But that is unlikely in the current circumstances, when governments are being forced into sales; it is more likely that buyers will underpay.
Of course, privatisation might have virtues for other reasons. The business may be run inefficiently in state hands. Better management in the private sector might improve the running of the economy and, in the long run, this will improve solvency. But it is hardly a cure-all for the debt crisis.

Nunca lo había pensado así: lo que vendés hoy, es el valor actual neto de un cash flow futuro, por ende no estás ganando nada de solvencia, y si estás necesitado, te arriesgás a que te garquen con el precio (underpayment).

Privatizá o estatizá (vendé o comprá activos, si no sos el Estado) de acuerdo a criterios de eficiencia, monopolios naturales, mercados imperfectos, etc... pero nunca vendas los activos por necesidad, siempre es una mala decisión.

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